Since the buzz word of the House 2008 picture this week is “rematch” (what with ex-Reps. Bradley and Ryun agitating for another run), here’s something to chew on–according to the Hotline, since 1998 “there are have been nearly 200 House rematches, with just 10 (six last cycle) being successful”. In a separate post, Hotline reports that Richard Pombo (CA-11) may be itching for a rematch against Rep. Jerry McNerney in 2008. Josh Kraushaar notes:
By choosing to run again, GOPers are making the races a choice between candidates instead of a referendum on the incumbent’s record. That could be the best scenario the DCCC could ask for in these tough races.
And the track record for repeat attempts against the same opponent doesn’t suggest otherwise, either.
Two other rematches may be in the works, as well, according to the Hotline’s subscription-only section: unsurprisingly, former State Rep. Joe Negron (R) will take on Rep. Tim Mahoney (FL-16) once again, after falling short by 2 points in 2006 while carrying the burden of being listed as Mark Foley on the actual ballot. Additionally, Idaho’s Larry Grant may be “leaning toward” a rematch against Bill “Brain Fade” Sali in ID-01. Of all of these match-ups, Negron’s may prove to be the most worthwhile, as he ran an effective campaign with the deck stacked so heavily against him. Still, with Mahoney’s self-funding capability, incumbency advantage, and moderate profile, I’d much rather be us than them.
I think Larry Grant faces the greatest uphill rematch should he decide to run. Sali will have incumbency (although probably a radical voting record) and Idaho will be even tougher during a Presidential year. Larry is our best chance, but I’m afraid even our best wont be good enough in ’08.
Is not that Republican. Bush only got 53% there in 2004, just two points more than his national average.
If he couldn’t beat BILL “MUTHAFUCKIN” SALI in 06, he can’t in 08.
The district elected Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco from 1990 to 1994 and only lost in 1994 because of scandal.
Carol Shea Porter should be pretty safe in NH-01. The district is only marginally republican – Kerry got 48.4% of the vote here and only lost by 2.3 points – and Bradley is not the most charismatic candidate. However Porter has to work on her image a bit – this raving liberal label the media has pinned on her will be tough to overcome.
Come to think of it, the current NH districts are in fact the result of a 19th century gerrymander. You’ve probably heard at some point that when the Dems took over the state legislature in November, it was for the first time since 1874. Well, in the next redistricting after that previous era of Democratic control – 1881 – the Republicans designed the two districts to split the Democratic vote in Manchester and Nashua and ensure Republican victories in both districts. I love the idea of putting the shoe on the other foot now that we finally have the chance to do so, but I can’t think of any way we could make either district prohibitively Democratic at this point, let alone both. The days of Republican dominance may be gone forever, but NH isn’t like the rest of New England just yet.